Why Venezuela Is Threatening to Annex Guyana’s Oil-Rich Province of Essequibo
Longstanding Dispute
Venezuela claims that a great deal of what is modern day onshore and offshore Guyana is Venezuelan. In 1899, an international arbitration ruling in Paris settled the border between Venezuela and what was then British Guiana – with an independent Guyana emerging in 1966.
Successive Venezuelan governments and dictatorial regimes have disputed the positioning of the international boundary. They have argued that the territory, in and around the Essequibo River, is not Guyanese.
Maduro does not want to relitigate the 1899 Paris decision – he simply wants to ignore it. But the International Court of Justice (ICJ) already warned Caracas not to take any action about the recognized international boundary. They did not, however, comment on the proposal by Maduro to hold an internal referendum on the matter.
The referendum in question was held in Venezuela on December 3. Citizens were asked a series of questions about whether a new province should be established called Guyana Esequiba. According to presidential supporters, 10 million citizens cast their vote with the vast majority in favor of such a proposal. International observers remain deeply skeptical of both voter engagement and the strength of feeling expressed for such a proposal.
Either way, Maduro has pushed on with his plan to annex the territory. Venezuelan companies have been encouraged to prepare to enter Guyanese territory. The Venezuelan parliament was tasked with establishing a new licensing framework to authorize such extractive intrusions.
Guyanese operators would be given three months to abandon any operational sites in the claimed area of the country. Around 120,000 Guyanese citizens live in the 61,000 sq mile territory that Venezuela wants to incorporate.
“Direct Threat”
The Guyanese president issued a televised statement that warned about a “direct threat” to Guyana’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. He condemned the “desperate actions” of the Venezuelan president. He asked that Guyana’s small defense force was placed on high alert. Venezuela’s armed forces dwarf Guyana’s.
Meanwhile, Brazil is mobilizing its forces to ensure that there is no conflict spillover as the country borders both affected parties. Guyana will need international assistance if the situation turns ugly. Regional bodies such as the Organization of American States (OAS) have condemned Venezuela’s actions.
What is disconcerting is that Venezuela’s closest geopolitical ally is Putin’s Russia.
The relationship with Moscow strengthened under the late Hugo Chavez’s tenure and expanded to include multiple agreements in the oil, agricultural and technological sectors. Venezuela did not condemn the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Maduro will have watched events unfold in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and perhaps picked up some lessons from Putin about how bully a near-neighbor, launch false-flag operations – and then choose your moment to strike.
Klaus Dodds is Professor of Geopolitics, Royal Holloway University of London. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.
