Most Violent Crime Rates Have Fallen ack to Pre-Pandemic Levels: Report
Even blue states are embracing a tougher approach to crime
Some crime experts say that media reports, political messaging and viral social media posts may exaggerate Americans’ worries about disorder, making crimes such as shoplifting and public drug use appear more prevalent than they actually are. Still, some individual cities and neighborhoods may be experiencing higher crime rates, which could further explain these concerns.
“We still have problems with crime, still have problems in the criminal justice system, and even though the crime rates are improving, we should not take our focus off crime and criminal justice,” said Ernesto Lopez, the report’s co-author and a senior research specialist with the council, in an interview with Stateline.
The council analyzed crime trends in 40 U.S. cities, although not all cities had data available for every type of offense.
Among the cities studied, 22 saw a decline in homicides last year, with Chandler, Arizona, and Little Rock, Arkansas, recording the largest decreases at 50% and 43%, respectively. Six cities experienced increases, with Colorado Springs, Colorado, leading the way with a 56% jump.
When comparing homicide rates between 2019 and 2024, the council’s study sample saw a 6% decline, largely driven by cities with traditionally high homicide rates, including Baltimore and St. Louis.
Homicides are still above pre-pandemic levels in some cities, including New York City and Washington, D.C. In New York City, for example, there were 382 homicides in 2024 compared with 319 in 2019. In Washington, D.C., there were 187 homicides in 2024 and 166 in 2019.
Other Crimes
The CCJ report also examined trends in other violent and property crimes, including gun assault, carjacking, motor vehicle theft and drug offenses. Most of these offenses were lower in 2024 than in 2023, with shoplifting being the only exception, showing a 14% increase. Shoplifting also was 1% higher in 2024 compared with 2019.
Researchers were surprised that shoplifting rates increased last year despite retailers taking more measures to combat it, such as locking up merchandise behind glass. Some experts say that the rise may reflect improved reporting efforts rather than an actual spike in theft.
Last year, state legislatures placed a strong emphasis on tackling retail theft, and this momentum is likely to continue into this year, with Maryland lawmakers already considering a bill aimed at addressing large-scale organized retail theft.
From 2023 to 2024, incidents of robbery dropped by 10%, carjackings fell by 32%, and motor vehicle theft decreased by 24%.
Violent crimes such as sexual assault, domestic violence and robbery are now below pre-pandemic levels, but aggravated assaults, gun assaults and carjackings remain higher than in 2019, according to the report.
Property crime trends over the past five years varied. Residential burglaries and larcenies decreased, while nonresidential burglaries increased. Motor vehicle thefts rose by 53%, and drug offenses fell by 28%.
Amanda Hernández covers criminal justice for Stateline. The article originally appeared in Stateline.
