• The U.S. Is Pushing Southeast Asia Toward China. The Iran War Made It Worse.

    There is a growing anxiety among U.S. allies in Southeast Asia about inconsistencies in U.S. policy and the credibility of long-term commitments under Trump’s leadership. A new survey of Southeast Asian opinion leaders shows they prefer China to the United States as a partner, while the region’s biggest geopolitical concern is U.S. global leadership.

  • Gulf Leaders Didn’t Want the Iran War. They Need Trump to Win It Anyway.

    Leaders in the region weren’t necessarily interested in a war with the Islamic Republic, but they now need Trump to oust the Iranian regime to ensure it can no longer pose a threat. Stopping short of that would be existential to the Gulf states’ development model.

  • Why Hasn’t the U.S. Military Used Force to Secure the Strait of Hormuz?

    To make the strait safe for shipping, there is a need to secure not just the water, but the land on either side of it. And this would likely require ground forces – or perhaps raiding parties on Iran’s coastline – which would be complicated and risky for the US military. Securing shipping would require a significant number of naval ships.

  • Maritime Dimensions of the West Asia War

    Despite the USs possessing overwhelming superiority over Iran in the naval domain, it has been unable to deter or prevent Iranian disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s selective restrictions on transit showcase how geopolitical alignments influence commercial navigation and international trade flows.

  • EU and U.S. Critical-Minerals Strategies: Same Goal, Different Methods

    The United States and the European Union are both working to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals, but they’re taking markedly different approaches. As both powers pursue critical-mineral independence through different means, the EU may struggle to keep up with the US’s more assertive policy.

  • Warden’s Five Rings and Regime Change in Iran

    The war in Iran began with one of the most effective decapitation strikes in history but while it may have caused temporary paralysis, it neither brought down the regime nor brought victory. Should the United States and Israel truly desire regime change in the near term, their success so far will not be enough. Rather than targeting the heads of the regime, they will have to target the proverbial arms and fingers of repression. The Basij, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Law Enforcement Command at the local level must begin to bear the brunt of U.S. and Israeli airpower.

  • The Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness

    The cascading effects of disrupted maritime chokepoints are no longer the subject of simulations; they are an active crisis.

  • China’s Export Controls Threaten U.S. Interceptors During Conflict with Iran

    Neodymium and samarium may sound like something from a Hollywood superhero film, but they aren’t. These obscure elements drive modern tech and are buried deep inside modern missile systems, and they give China a quiet yet powerful lever over the United States in the ongoing conflict with Iran.

  • Iraq War’s Aftermath Was a Disaster for the U.S. – the Iran War Is Headed in the Same Direction

    The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003. But the military outcome and the political outcome are almost never the same thing, and the gap between them is where wars fail.

  • U.S. Is Less Prone to Oil Price Shocks Than in Past Decades

    Oil is a global market, so when prices rise in one place, they rise everywhere. The current war against Iran has already raised oil prices significantly. Now, however, the United States is a major producer and exporter of oil and refined petroleum products. In addition to being less dependent on imports, the U.S. economy is much less oil-intensive than it used to be, producing more economic value with far less oil use today than in the past.

  • Trump Should Aim to Neutralize the Iran Regime, Not Destroy It

    A grassroots revolution in Iran sounds attractive, but it is far too risky. The likely outcome of dismantling the Islamic Republic is not stable democracy, but state fracture, political chaos, and radiating instability. Washington should instead aim for a defanged Islamic Republic.

  • CIA Agents Successfully Executed a Plan for Regime Change in Iran in 1953 – but Trump Hasn’t Revealed Any Signs of a Plan

    There are lessons in effecting political change in Iran that can be taken, ironically, from the very U.S.- and British-led clandestine campaign in the mid-20th century that set Iran on the road to the intense anti-Western and anti-American sentiment that has characterized its government policy for decades.

  • The Impact of the Venezuelan Leadership Change on the Guyana Disputes

    In early January 2026, U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and moved to assume a controlling role in Venezuelan governance. We should consider the likely impact of the U.S. operation on two issues involving Venezuela and its neighbor, Guyana: the Guyana–Venezuela border/oil dispute, and the plausibility that Venezuela would offer sanctuary to Azruddin Mohamed, now the leader of Guyana’s largest opposition party, who has been facing legal problems in both Guyana and the United States for crimes he had committed as part of his father’s business empire.

  • The Venezuela–Guyana Territorial Dispute: Historical and Legal Timeline

    The Venezuela–Guyana dispute reflects the enduring legacy of colonial-era boundary settlements and the challenges of postcolonial territorial governance. What began as a Nineteenth-Century arbitration has evolved into a major test of international adjudication, resource diplomacy, and regional stability.

  • Making Hay While Trump Shines: China’s Tactical Step Back

    Xi appears to have concluded that the Trump administration’s behaviour presents a strategic opportunity. The turbulence in Washington’s alliances, mixed messaging on commitments and a renewed focus on transactional diplomacy have created space for Beijing to present itself as a comparatively stable and responsible actor.