• Brazil’s Election and South America’s Looming Migration Woes

    The second round Brazil’s presidential election, to be held 30 October, might plunge the highly polarized country into a political chaos. One side-effect would be the mass migration of Brazilians fleeing instability, exacerbating the hectic state of migration at the U.S. southern border. Brazilian migrants will join the growing number of migrants from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in reshaping migration trends.

  • How the Biden Administration Is Responding to Putin’s Threats to Go Nuclear

    Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would not necessarily be considered in contravention of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, whereby an attack on one is considered an attack on all and requires collective military defense. But experts say that a case could be made that if radiation from use of a nuclear warhead were to spill over into a NATO country, this could be construed as an attack.

  • OPEC Agrees to Cut Oil Production

    The 23-member alliance has decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day. The move could increase crude oil prices and aid Russia, which is grappling with Western attempts to reduce its financing.

  • Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage: How an Attack Could Have Been Carried Out and Why Europe Was Defenseless

    Whatever caused the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, it appears to be the first major attack on critical “subsea” (underwater) infrastructure in Europe. This raises the question of the vulnerabilities of European pipelines, electricity and internet cables, and other maritime infrastructure. Europe will have to revisit its policies for protecting them.

  • Permanent Rupture: The European-Russia Energy Relationship Has Ended with Nord Stream

    Last Monday’s blasts that tore through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines have already blown up whatever was left of five decades of German energy policy. For Germany, abandoning the Nord Stream pipelines signified a fundamental transformation of Germany’s energy security strategy, and its approach to relations with Russia. “The Nord Stream pipeline was the last gasp of Ostpolitik and this week’s damage is likely fatal.” Emily Holland writes.

  • Russia Annexes Parts of Eastern Ukraine: What We Need to Know

    On Friday, 30 September 2022, Russia has formally annexed four regions in east Ukraine. The people in these four regions are not a single political bloc, even though most of the people in these territories do not want to join Russia.

  • Pipeline Leaks Likely the Result of Deliberate Act

    European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Wednesday that all indications are that leaks from two Nord Stream natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “are the result of a deliberate act.” The 1,222-kilometer-long Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been, until recently, a major source of gas for Germany. Nord Stream 2, which is 1,234 kilometers in length, has yet to go into commercial operation.

  • Suspicious Leaks in Baltic Sea Nord Stream Pipelines Connecting Russia and Germany

    Both Nord Stream natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany have developed apparent leaks within hours of one another. The cause is unknown, but some sources have hinted at sabotage.

  • No Game Changer: Russian Mobilization May Slow, Not Stop, Ukrainian Offensive

    The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.

  • Is China Reexporting Russian Gas to Europe?

    As the EU attempts to unpick its reliance on Russian gas, it could become more dependent on Chinese supplies, some of which come from Russia. This might undermine the aim of reducing purchases of its fossil fuels.

  • Germany Takes Over Rosneft Refineries in Move to Secure Energy Supplies

    Germany says it has taken control of a major oil refinery owned by the German unit of Russia’s Rosneft as a step to bolster energy security for the country amid oil and gas cuts by Moscow in retaliation for Western sanctions against it because of the invasion of Ukraine.

  • U.S. Moves to Keep Advanced Semiconductor Technology Out of China

    Companies that accept U.S. funding under the CHIPS Act — a plan to build up America’s computer chip-making capacity — will be barred from establishing advanced fabrication facilities in China for 10 years. The CHIPS Act is a response not just to the computer chip shortage that snarled global supply chains during the pandemic but also to the perceived national security threat that a lack of domestic semiconductor manufacturing presents.

  • Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?

    To what extent does conflict in other regions affect the U.S. economy, even when the United States remains a nonbelligerent state? To what extent does U.S. military engagement abroad suppress conflict? To what extent does U.S. military engagement abroad impact U.S. peacetime trade and investment with other countries? To what extent does U.S. military engagement abroad increase U.S. economic welfare?

  • Cutting off Europe's Gas Supply Is Putin's Last Throw of the Dice

    Away from the fighting the most important moves are in the economic sphere, especially in the energy markets. These moves are geared to influencing the military situation although their more important consequences may end up over the long-term being away from the war, reflected in the stresses and strains imposed on the global economy. As for influencing the course of the battles in the short-term, which is what is intended, their effects may be limited.

  • Germany — No Exit from the Nuclear Energy Exit

    German Economy Minister Robert Habeck wants to keep two of the three German nuclear power plants on standby for an extra three months as an emergency reserve. That is the right decision.