• The Taiwan Scenarios 4: The Catastrophe

    By any measure, China’s four main choices for forcing unification with Taiwan—subversion, quarantine, blockade, or invasion—would all have far-reaching consequences for Beijing and the wider Indo-Pacific. The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone.

  • Building Taiwan's Resilience

    China’s increased military threats and intimidation activities against Taiwan and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have prompted Taiwan’s government and civil society to strengthen the country’s resilience.

  • Water Wars: A Historic Agreement Between Mexico and US Is Ramping Up Border Tension

    As climate change drives rising temperatures and changes in rainfall, Mexico and the US are in the middle of a conflict over water, putting an additional strain on their relationship. Partly due to constant droughts, Mexico has struggled to maintain its water deliveries for much of the last 25 years, deliveries to which it is obligated by a 1944 water-sharing agreement between the two countries.

  • Fragmented by Design: USAID’s Dismantling and the Future of American Foreign Aid

    The Trump administration launched an aggressive restructuring of U.S. foreign aid, effectively dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The humanitarian and geopolitical fallout of the demise of USAID includes shuttered clinics, destroyed food aid, and China’s growing influence in the global south. This new era of American soft power will determine how, and whether, the U.S. continues to lead in global development.

  • China and Rare-Earth Elements: Is Trump Blinking on Tariffs?

    On 2 April 2025, President Trump announced a significant shift in the US trade policy, imposing tariffs on multiple countries, with special emphasis on China. In response, on 4 April 2025, China placed export restrictions on REEs, which are also known as rare metals.

  • Bookshelf: How China Won Over America, and Then Lost It

    In the four decades before 2010, the United States maintained a policy of engagement with China. But since 2010, the US–China relationship has given way to competition and disengagement. China’s formerly positive image among the American public has taken a nosedive.

  • Overshadowed by Border Dispute, India-Pakistan Water Security Risks Grow

    Glacial meltwater accounts for a significant portion of annual flows in the Indus River Basin, but as glaciers retreat due to climate change, this flow is decreasing, leading to water scarcity. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to reduction in Indus River Basin flows: it relies on the Indus River for more than 90 percent of its water, and is already grappling with severe water shortages.

  • U.S.-UK Trade Deal Illustrates Trump’s Shifting Trade Policy

    The U.S.-UK trade agreement is Trump’s first since his “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. It could be a possible template for other nations seeking a deal, but it could also have major implications for global trading norms.

  • Trump Pick to Run DEA Could Challenge America’s Already Tense Relations with Mexico

    In 22 years at the agency, Terry Cole never rose to its top ranks, but he is a vocal supporter of the president’s goal of going after Mexican officials who are complicit with drug cartels.

  • Washington Silences Its Own Voice

    The Trump administration’s decision to close the U.S. Agency for Global Media’s (USAGM) aids authoritarian propaganda and interference efforts. In many countries, USAGM outlets are among the few sources presenting uncensored, fact-based reporting hampered neither by authoritarian government nor oligarchic censorship or influence. They serve US interests by challenging authoritarians and by giving the people these leaders seek to oppress or influence access to unbiased news and other information.

  • Deep Sea Mining is the New Front in Pacific Competition

    Recent developments reflect the rise of renewed great-power resource rivalry and the race for critical minerals, which underpin digital infrastructure and green energy.

  • The U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter?

    President Trump has made reducing U.S. trade deficits a priority, but economists disagree over how much they matter and what to do about them.

  • Trump’s Obsession with Trade Deficits Has No Basis in Economics. And It’s a Bad Reason for Tariffs

    President Donald Trump believes that if a country has a trade surplus with the U.S. it is somehow playing unfairly and needs to be dealt with. But anyone who understands the basics of international economics will recognize the fallacy in both of these beliefs. That the U.S. has a trade deficit is not a sign that the rest of the world is “ripping it off.” It is a reflection of an affluent society with relatively high wages buying products from countries that can produce them more cheaply. Trump’s tariffs will hurt Americans first – basic international economics is clear on that too.

  • No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism

    The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.

  • In Trade War with the U.S., China Holds a Lot More Cards Than Trump May Think − in Fact, It Might Have a Winning Hand

    While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around, compared to the tariff conflict between the two countries during Trump’s first term in the White Houser. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.