• Did the West Promise Moscow NATO Would Not Expand? It's Complicated.

    Did the United States, thirty years ago, promise Russia that if Russia agreed to Germany’s unification, NATO “would not expand one inch eastward”? The belief that the United States made that promise, and then betrayed it, continues to form a central grievance in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative about Moscow’s ties with the West.

  • European Union Supports Lithuania in Trade Fight with China

    In a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Lithuania alleges that that China has violated the trade body’s rules by carrying out against Lithuania coercive actions that also interfered with the EU’s all-member-inclusive single market and supply chain.

  • Russia’s Energy Role in Europe: What Is at Stake with the Ukraine Crisis

    The prospect of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine has brought European dependence on Russian energy into sharp relief and set off a scramble for alternatives.

  • Can the U.S. Find Enough Natural Gas Sources to Neutralize Russia’s Energy Leverage Over Europe?

    The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe. To weaken Russia’s leverage, the Biden administration is working to secure additional gas shipments to Europe from other sources. “Putin may be willing to bet that an energy pricing crisis in Europe will sow popular discontent, scotch the energy transition and help Russia win concessions on NATO’s positioning of troops and missiles. But there is little evidence that Europe will react that way,” says an energy expert.

  • Geography is Destiny: Ukraine’s Options Are Limited

    Russia is much stronger militarily than Ukraine. When Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, it never hesitated to launch massive, indiscriminate, and destructive attacks on the civilian population and infrastructure, as was demonstrated in the two Chechnya wars. If there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, one way or another, will win it. This is important to note as the crisis over Ukraine deepens, and as many – too many – voices in the West are, in effect, urging Ukraine: “You fight Russia, and we’ll hold your coat.” This is a cavalier, and likely exceedingly costly, advice.

  • Nord Stream 2 Will Not Move Forward If Russia Invades Ukraine

    U.S. said it would work with Germany to ensure that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany does not begin operations if Russia invades Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the pipeline a “private sector project,” as did his predecessor Angela Merkel, but he has hardened his position in the past few days.

  • U.S. Developing Energy Contingency Plan for Europe in Case of Russia’s Cuts in Oil, Gas Exports

    Moscow provides approximately 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas, and European energy stockpiles have been significantly lower in the past few months because of reduced Russian supplies. The Biden administration has been working with European countries and energy producers around the world on ways to supply fuel to Western European countries should Russian President Vladimir Putin slash oil and gas exports in retaliation for sanctions imposed for an invasion of Ukraine.

  • Putin “Playing Poker Rather Than Chess”: Former U.K. Spy Chief

    In an interview Tuesday with the BBC, former head of Britain’s MI6 external intelligence agency, Alex Younger, said he cannot see how the Russian leader can back down as fears mount that Putin is poised to order a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.

  • Why NATO Has Become a Flash Point with Russia in Ukraine

    Russian leaders have watched with mounting resentment as the transatlantic alliance has nearly doubled its membership since the end of the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin has drawn a red line in Ukraine.

  • U.S. Cyber Officials Bracing for Fallout from “Log4j” Vulnerability

    More than a month after the Log4j software vulnerability was first discovered, U.S. cybersecurity officials are still warning about it, saying that some criminals and nation state adversaries may be waiting to make use of their newfound access to critical systems.

  • Germany Responds to Putin's Weaponization of Russian Gas

    Germany is pumping Russian gas back into Poland as Gazprom cuts supply to the EU. As Russia plays its hybrid war games with an increasingly divided EU, the new front appears to be the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.

  • What Will Taiwan Do If China Invades?

    China claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island 160 kilometers away and has not dropped the threat of force, if needed, to capture it. The two sides have been separately ruled since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s. The specter of a war has captured attention since mid-2020 when the People’s Liberation Army began almost daily military aircraft flyovers over a sea west of the island, which experts said is China’s attempt to normalize its military operations near Taiwan.

  • To Intervene or Not to Intervene: That Is the Question

    When a crisis or conflict threaten U.S. interests, a direct military intervention is one of the options American decisionmakers must consider. A new report offers a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs between intervening militarily early in a war or crisis, intervening later, and not intervening at all, as well as the trade-offs involved in decisions regarding the size of the potential intervention force to be employed.

  • How China Could Cyberattack Taiwan

    China has the means to launch a disabling cyberattack against political rival Taiwan ahead of any military invasion, experts say, as the technology is already targeting the island’s political leadership. A straight-up military invasion would cost lives and mobilize U.S. forces for Taiwan’s defense. Disruptive cyberattacks could sow chaos and soften Taiwan’s defenses, potentially making an invasion less costly for Beijing, experts say.

  • Competition Between U.S., China Continues in Africa

    Annual U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have been declining since 2010. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to Africa grew significantly, exceeding that of the United States since 2013.