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The AI Race Isn’t Real
The notion of an AI race against China is at the center of the administration’s deregulatory turn. In Congress and the private sector, an AI race against China is also frequently invoked as a reason to favor light regulation of domestic AI companies, even in the presence of serious threat models. But the idea of an AI race that must be won at all costs is wrong. It is fundamentally flawed as a descriptive matter and normatively defective.
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Fast 16 Malware Aimed at Undermining Proliferant State Nuclear Weapons Programs, Iran was a Credible Target
The Fast 16 malware looks to be targeting a nuclear weapon program’s hydrodynamic calculation group working on implosion systems using weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material.
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Taiwan’s Legislature Slashes Equipment Budget, Weakening Porcupine Strategy
The Taiwanese legislature’s curtailing of a defense acquisition budget on 8 May has impeded the government’s attempts at building a porcupine defense system and has damaged the island’s strategic credibility.
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What the Iran War Taught China About Fighting the United States
Iran could not defeat the United States militarily, but it never needed to—and China is taking note. By choking the Strait of Hormuz, spiking energy markets, and running down the clock, Tehran offered Beijing a case study in how to impose costs without seeking victory.
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Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?
The United Nations expects global population numbers to peak sometime in the second half of this century. Then they will do something that governments around the world have not experienced for centuries. They will start to slowly, but significantly, drop.
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DeepSeek V4 Signals a New Phase in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry
The latest Chinese model trails U.S. competitors on benchmarks. But it may not have to win the performance race to reshape the geopolitics of artificial intelligence.
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Bookshelf: the U.S. Has a Long History of Getting Iran Wrong
On New Year’s Eve in 1977, US president Jimmy Carter hailed Iran as ‘an island of stability in one of the more troubled regions of the world’, which he credited to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s leadership and ‘the admiration and love which your people give to you.’ It was not the first, or last, time the United States demonstrated a misunderstanding of Iran.
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A New Uncertainty on the Global Stage
In the past, rapid economic growth led to new countries emerging as power players on the global stage. Now the emergence of rising powers has stalled, says Tufts professor Michael Beckley. Stagnating world powers usher in a new era of global competition, bringing upsides and pitfalls.
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The Iran War Is Highlighting—and Expanding—Authoritarian Collaboration
Autocratic regimes like China and Russia have increasingly supported Iran and other repressive partners in an effort to keep authoritarians in power and build a global network of autocracies.
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Far from Random, China’s Global Port Network Is Clustering Near the World’s Riskiest Trade Routes
Chinese firms now own or operate terminals at more than 90 ports worldwide, including many of the busiest. The network spans Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, with growing activity in South America. The scale of China’s involvement in overseas ports has fueled debate over whether these investments are purely commercial or serve broader strategic goals. -
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Orbán’s Fall in Hungary Opens a Door for Europe — and Closes One for Russia
Longtime Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán suffered a massive defeat in his country’s elections, with the opposition party claiming a supermajority. The country’s new leader, Péter Magyar, now has the chance to unwind sixteen years of illiberalism and play an important role in the future of NATO and European integration.
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Hungarian Election Exposes Tensions at the Heart of Donald Trump’s Plans to Boost the Far‑Right in Europe
The world will be watching on April 12 when Hungarians head to the polls in parliamentary elections that will determine the country’s next prime minister. This may sound exaggerated, but these parliamentary elections are about much more than simply whether the incumbent prime minister, Viktor Orbán, will serve another term as Hungary’s leader.
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The U.S. Is Pushing Southeast Asia Toward China. The Iran War Made It Worse.
There is a growing anxiety among U.S. allies in Southeast Asia about inconsistencies in U.S. policy and the credibility of long-term commitments under Trump’s leadership. A new survey of Southeast Asian opinion leaders shows they prefer China to the United States as a partner, while the region’s biggest geopolitical concern is U.S. global leadership.
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Gulf Leaders Didn’t Want the Iran War. They Need Trump to Win It Anyway.
Leaders in the region weren’t necessarily interested in a war with the Islamic Republic, but they now need Trump to oust the Iranian regime to ensure it can no longer pose a threat. Stopping short of that would be existential to the Gulf states’ development model.
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Why Hasn’t the U.S. Military Used Force to Secure the Strait of Hormuz?
To make the strait safe for shipping, there is a need to secure not just the water, but the land on either side of it. And this would likely require ground forces – or perhaps raiding parties on Iran’s coastline – which would be complicated and risky for the US military. Securing shipping would require a significant number of naval ships.
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The long view
Bookshelf: The Next China Is Still China
Could another country replace China as the world’s economic growth leader, or could China reset for a new phase of economic leadership? This is the key question Joe Ngai and Nick Leung address in their new book.