• China, Not Russia, Still Tops List of Threats to US, Top Pentagon Official Says

    Russia’s war in Ukraine — portrayed by top U.S. officials as posing a danger to the United States itself — still trails China when it comes to long-term threats to America’s security, according to a top Pentagon official.

  • Larger Lesson About Tariffs in a Move That Helped Trump, but Not the Country

    Researcher details findings on policy that failed to boost U.S. employment even as it scored political points. Promising to reduce a longstanding trade deficit with China, curb theft of U.S. intellectual property, and reclaim manufacturing jobs, then-President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports in January 2018. By at least one key set of measures, the move was a failure.

  • Developing Effective Deterrence—from the War Fighters’ Perspective

    The state of deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific is constantly adapting to the evolving threat Beijing poses to the United States and its allies on multiple fronts. But  a growing number of US military service members warn that deterrence is unravelling. Perspectives from individuals actively engaged in deterrence operations can help shape effective policy.

  • Hungary's Orban Says Trump's Plan to End Ukraine War Is to Cut Funding

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after a private meeting in the United States with Donald Trump, said the former president has “quite detailed plans” about how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine and won’t give Kyiv any further funding to hasten an end to the conflict. Orban, whose government has refused to send weapons to Kyiv while maintaining ties with Moscow, said after his meeting with Trump that “it is obvious that Ukraine on its own cannot stand on its feet.”

  • European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply

    States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.

  • LNG Exports Have Had No Impact on Domestic Energy Costs: Analysis

    U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) exports have not had any sustained and significant direct impact on U.S. natural gas prices and have, in fact, spurred production and productivity gains, which contribute to downward pressure on domestic prices.

  • A Careful Rethinking of the Iraq War

    A new book details military operations and political dynamics in Iraq, shedding new light on the challenges of state-building. “The United States wanted to build a new Iraqi state, but what we did was create a situation where multiple and large Shia militia make deals with each other,” says the author, Roger Petersen.

  • The Two-State Solution: an Idea Whose Time Has Come?

    The ‘two-state solution’ therefore appears as an idea whose time has come.  It already figures prominently in all international deliberations on the ‘day after’ – when and if a relatively durable cease-fire is in place, allowing for relief to get to the population, the release of hostages, and a start to the hard work of reconstruction. There is, however, no simple path from where we are now to a viable Palestinian state.

  • Will The EU Ban Russian Aluminum?

    It is estimated that the European Union still imports the metal from Russia to the tune of 2.3 billion euros ($2.5 billion) per year. The bloc also exports various aluminum products to Russia, worth some 190 million euros. About 85 percent of Russia’s aluminum business — including the lucrative construction and automotive industries – are so far untouched by sanctions. EU member states want to change that.

  • Hamas Is Returning to Northern Gaza Because Israel Has No Plan for the “Day After”

    Israel’s lack of coherence with regard to the future administrative governing of the Gaza Strip, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate a “day after” vision for Gaza – he is worried that the far-right elements in his coalition would bolt if he allowed the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza – have resulted in Hamas’s assuming, again, the role of governing Gaza. Rob Geist Pinfold writes that in the absence of any clear political vision for capitalizing on its military successes, Israel is allowing Hamas, which is the only party that is willing and able to provide these essential services, to assume many of its pre-7 October responsibilities.

  • The Balticconnector Incident: Hybrid Attacks and Critical Infrastructure Protection

    There is the recognition that Europe needs to invest more resources to proactively prevent attacks such on those related to the Nord Streams in 2022 and Balticconnector in 2023. The European Union and individual EU countries are investing in new military measures as well as enacting new regulations aimed at protecting critical infrastructure.

  • Trump-Biden Spat on NATO Highlights Divide on America’s Role in the World

    Former President Donald Trump doubled down on his threat that, if elected, he would not defend NATO members who don’t meet defense spending targets. Biden, who has made strengthening coalitions against adversaries the central tenet of his foreign policy, advocates for more international cooperation overall. “Trump is breaking Republican orthodoxy entirely, not only with his isolationism, but with his pandering to autocrats,” said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund research group.

  • John Bolton Is Certain Trump Really Wants to Blow Up NATO

    John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, says that Trump’s goal in threatening to leave NATO “is not to strengthen NATO, it’s to lay the groundwork to get out.” Bolton says the consequences for U.S. and world security would be devastating. “Part of this desire to get out of NATO is that Trump has no idea about what alliance structures do and how beneficial they can be,” Bolton says. “He spent four years as president, he didn’t know anything about it when he entered the Oval Office, and he didn’t know anything about it when he left. So he has no idea the damage that withdrawing from NATO would do. He may be the only figure in American politics who thinks that — there are some nutcases around who don’t care, frankly, what the effect would be, but they’re a very distinct minority.”

  • What Do Germany's Migration Partnerships Entail?

    Migration partnerships can’t halt large movements of refugees, but they can help countries to better manage migration. Germany has signed a number of partnerships into effect in recent years.

  • The Unlikely Coalition Behind Biden’s Liquefied Natural Gas Pivot

    Climate activists led the charge against LNG exports, but they’re not the only ones celebrating Biden’s pause. A broader, less-climate-concerned coalition, representing thousands of manufacturers, chemical companies, and consumer advocates, has also been quietly pushing for the pause — and stands to benefit if Biden curbs LNG exports.