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U.S. Military Expert: “Ukraine's Position on the Battlefield Is Very Strong”
John Spencer says Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine anytime soon but he predicts Ukraine will ultimately prevail. He says the recent decision by Washington to deliver a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine may not be a game-changing move, but it could trigger other Western allies to donate similar systems, bolstering Kyiv’s defenses.
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Who Can Guarantee Russian Security?
What Makes Putin Insecure? Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. In the end the biggest threats to Russian security do not lie outside its borders but inside its capital.
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Ten Most Significant World Events in 2022
Future historians may come to regard 2022 as a hinge in history, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another. Major war returned to Europe, with the attendant threats of nuclear strikes, and the door closed firmly shut on the U.S. policy of strategic engagement with China. As 2022 comes to a close, here are the top ten most notable world events of the past year.
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To Quit Russian Gas, EU Invests Billions in LNG
The European Union is investing billions in infrastructure in its effort to replace Russian fuels with liquefied natural gas. This could prove to be a dead end — both for taxpayers and for the climate.
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The Global Race to Secure Critical Minerals Heats Up
The World Trade Organization last week ruled that Indonesia had no right to ban the export of nickel or to require that raw nickel ore be refined in Indonesia. Handing a comprehensive victory to the complainant, the European Union, the WTO decision highlights the clash between national security and global trade rules over critical minerals.
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Schengen States Extend Border Checks, Ignoring EU Court
Though the top EU court recently ruled that Germany, Denmark and other Schengen states have no legal basis for extending border checks reimposed in 2015, the European Commission is not initiating infringement procedures.
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Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
What are the key factors that U.S. policymakers and military planners should consider when assessing how China is likely to react to planned or proposed U.S. posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacific region?
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U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Network Supplying Russia with Weapons Tech
The United States has imposed sanctions on a network of entities and individuals that it says are involved in supplying Russia with military technology to use in its war against Ukraine.
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China and Global Development of Critical Resources
To what extent has China adhered to its pledge to not build new overseas coal power plants? What are the main concerns related to China’s ownership or control over power transmission and distribution companies in Latin America? What is the state of China’s deep- and distant-sea and seabed mining exploration activities, and to what extent does it use these activities for ulterior strategic purposes?
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China’s Chip Talent Problem Worsens After Layoffs at U.S. Firm Marvell
Marvell Technology has confirmed that it is eliminating research and development staffs in China – the third U.S. chipmaker that has done so this year as the U.S.-China tech rivalry intensifies. This will hobble China’s chip ambitions and worsen its talent shortfall in the field of designing and manufacturing cutting-edge computer chips.
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Economic Sanctions Have a Poor Success Rate
Economic sanctions have become the weapon of choice in the United States’ diplomatic and strategic arsenal. Trade tariffs, export controls and other financial penalties offer a quick means to punish ‘bad behavior’. However, sanctions have a poor success rate, have high economic costs, and may also have massive unanticipated consequences for innocent bystanders.
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What, If Any, Are the Chances of Toppling Putin and Who Might Take Over?
There is a consensus among most of the Russian elite, including liberals (although it seems to be waning in recent times): there is no such thing as a truly post-Putin Russia. Putinism is so embedded in the country’s political, social and economic institutions and relationships that it’s almost impossible to imagine. A realistic prognosis of a post-Putin Russia and succession plan must take this into account.
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Israel Presenting U.S. With Intelligence on Iranian Drones Used in Ukraine
Israeli President Isaac Herzog shared intelligence about Iranian drones being used by Russian forces in Ukraine when he met Wednesday with U.S. President Joe Biden.
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Will China Try to Take Taiwan in Xi’s Third Term?
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s success in securing an unprecedented third term this weekend has fueled speculation on whether he will try to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — the self-ruled island seen by Beijing as a part of China — in the next few years. Partly fueling the speculation is that Xi, the strongest leader China has had in years, has often called for achieving China’s “rejuvenation,” which includes reunifying with Taiwan.
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Companies Weigh Fallout from U.S. Ban on Sending Chip Tech to China
The new U.S. ban the transfer of advanced U.S. semiconductor technology to China affects not only U.S. firms that sell to China, but any company whose products contain American semiconductor technology. Semiconductor companies and other tech firms that count China among their largest single markets are facing potentially severe damage to their revenues.
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More headlines
The long view
North Korea’s Coming Breakout
Bad news for the world is often welcome relief to North Korea, a country that thrives in the shadowy cracks of the international system, Jonathan Corrado writes. Recent international developments have played into North Korea’s hands. “History shows that North Korea cannot be ignored. The more preparation is done today, the easier the answer will be tomorrow,” Corrado concludes.
American Grand Strategy, Realism, and the Russo-Ukraine War
Choices in foreign policy are never simple and are always sub-optimal. The choice faced now is whether to continue to support Ukraine fighting a messy, tragic war, which it may take time to win, or to let it carry on alone, with the prospect of an even more tragic conclusion from which the Western Alliance, let alone Ukraine, might never recover. As Western countries are not actually doing the fighting and have the resources to sustain Ukraine in its struggle, in the end this is not that difficult a choice to make. No, Ukraine is not another Vietnam.