SyriaIsrael’s attacks in Syria indicate Assad’s deteriorating position

Published 31 January 2013

Wednesday’s attacks are likely to be the first in a series of attacks which Israel will feel compelled to launch at an ever quickening pace as the Assad regime continues to disintegrate. Israel attacked targets inside Syria before, but not too often, and only when the targets were of strategic value. The deteriorating situation in Syria appears to have persuaded Israel that it has no choice but to renew its military operations inside Syria.

More information is emerging about the targets of Israel’s early Wednesday air attacks on targets inside Syria.

  • The first target was a convoy of military trucks carrying advanced SA-17 Russian anti-aircraft missiles from Syrian military bases to Hezbollah. Israel has warned Syria and Hezbollah that it would not allow the transfer of certain types of advanced weapons, especially anti-aircraft missiles, to Hezbollah. Israel has enjoyed complete air dominance over Lebanon, and it has made it clear that it would not allow any erosion of this dominance, which Israel considers to be essential to its security.
    In this context, we should note that on Tuesday, 22 January, the head of Israel’s military intelligence, General Aviv Kokhavi, flew for a surprise visit to Moscow to discuss the deteriorating situation in Syria with high political and military officials in Syria. Israeli sources confirm that Kokhavi informed the Russians that Israel would prevent the transfer of advanced Russian arms technology from Syria to Lebanon. One of the reasons for Kokhavi’s mission was to advise the Russians that it would be a good idea to make sure that Russian military personnel and civilian technicians are not in close proximity to these advanced weapons when the systems are on the move toward the Lebanese border, because these systems would likely be attacked and destroyed.
  • The second target destroyed by Israel on Wednesday morning was a military research center near the town of Jamraya, in which the Syrian military was developing chemical and biological munitions. Syria has more than three dozen chemical and biological weapons production and storage facilities, and it is not clear why Israel was alarmed enough about the Jamraya facility to destroy it.