CHINA WATCHTwo Things to Know about the U.S.-China Competition
A debate about China’s “inexorable” rise has been occupying the op-ed pages of leading newspapers and the conference rooms of leading think tanks for some time now. China’s rise is real, but the U.S. has the means to keep it in check. The U.S. boasts 24 percent of global GDP and almost half of business worldwide. It is already the leading power by these metrics alone. Two more data points demonstrate the United States has an opportunity to keep its competitive advantage provided Congress is willing to reduce defense procurement regulations.
A debate about China’s “inexorable” rise has been roiling press elites and think tanks in Washington D.C. for some time now. Granted, there is some cause for concern given that China’s $14 trillion economy fuels a massive, state-funded military-industrial complex. It ranks second with 18 percent of global GDP and takes up a fifth of business overall. Through its “One Belt One Road” initiative, China’s near abroad stretches beyond the mainland to Tibet and Hong Kong, then atop new garrisons in the South and East China Seas, brushing off counterclaims made by Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam along the way.
And, in 20 years, China has awakened from its “peaceful rise” doldrums. No longer passive, it is actively moving at an alarming speed, transforming itself from imitator to innovator. Though its most advanced aircraft bear the design characteristics of the U.S. F-35, F-22, and C-17, China’s state-run industries roll out new versions in months, not years. Inspired by visions of a new, tech-driven dynasty—albeit with designs purloined from U.S. defense contractors—Beijing is surging forward.
In the meantime, the United States embroiled itself in the Global War on Terrorism. The U.S. military has deployed 156 times to 47 countries and has come to grips with a harrowing withdrawal from Afghanistan. The country is also dealing with severe unrest within its borders, a halting pandemic recovery, and confronting the limits of its military power. After all this, one noted opinion leader from The New York Times asked, “Is war with China next?”
No. War with China is unlikely. The real question is whether the United States and China can coexist and compete with each other militarily and industrially. Doubtless, American and Chinese financial fates are inextricably linked, thus lowering the possibility for war but raising the stakes for a mutually assured economic meltdown in the event of a miscalculation. China has been the Western world’s go-to manufacturing base for decades. The United States is the world’s leading economy in large part due to China. The U.S. boasts 24 percent of global GDP and almost half of business worldwide. It is already the leading power by these metrics alone. Two more data points demonstrate the United States has an opportunity to keep its competitive advantage provided Congress is willing to reduce defense procurement regulations.
