IRAN’S NUKESIran’s Current Nuclear-Weapons Status: The Facts

A report published in April by the Institute for Science and International Security, titled Entering Dangerous, Uncharted Waters: Iran’s 60 Percent Highly Enriched Uranium, and an interview with the Jerusalem Post by David Albright, the report’s co-author, offer startling, and disturbing, insights into the rapid, and likely irreversible, progress Iran has made toward developing a workable nuclear weapon since the Trump administration, in 2018, decided to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Here are the main points (the direct quotes from the report are indicated by “R”; the quotes from Albright’s interview with the Jerusalem Post are indicated by “A/JP”; comments from the Post’s writer are indicated by “JP”):

·  JP: Iran could have four “crude” nuclear bombs, or “devices,” within three months if it decides to cross the nuclear threshold.

·  R: “[Iran] has enough 60% enriched uranium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be assured it could fashion a nuclear explosive… within a few weeks, with only a few of its advanced centrifuge cascades.”

·  R: “In parallel, within a month, Iran] could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a second nuclear explosive from its existing stock of near 20% low enriched uranium. Within 1.5 months after starting breakout, it could accumulate enough for a third nuclear weapon, using its remaining near 20% enriched uranium and some of its 4.5% enriched uranium.”

·  R: Within “2.75 months after starting breakout, it could have a fourth quantity by further enriching 4.5% enriched uranium up to 90%. At six months, it could have produced a fifth quantity by further enriching both 4.5% enriched uranium and natural uranium. The accumulation for a sixth would take several months longer.”

·  JP: Israeli intelligence and nuclear experts have said that Iran would need another six months to two years to perfect methods for detonation, warhead miniaturization, missile reentry

·  A/JP: It is “A common fallacy is that Iran would require 90% HEU, more commonly called weapons-grade uranium, to build nuclear explosives.”

·  A/JP: Lower levels of enriched uranium were used in nuclear weapons designs by the US in the 1940s as well as by South Africa. Little Boy, the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima, mixed the highest level of enriched uranium with some uranium enriched to as low as 50%.

·  A/JP: 60%-enriched devices require a greater amount of high explosives to initiate the detonation process. “At the least, a device made from 60% HEU would be suitable for underground nuclear testing or delivery by a crude delivery system.”