NUCLEAR WEAPONSIran Can Produce Enough Weapon-Grade Uranium for a Nuclear Weapon in 12 Days
Iran can now break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days, using only three or four of its advanced centrifuge cascades and little more than one-third of its existing stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access. Within four more weeks, Iran can produce enough weapon-grade uranium for four additional bombs.
A new report from the Institute for Science and International Security summarizes and assesses information in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) quarterly report for 31 May 2023, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), including Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Findings
· Iran can now break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days, using only three or four of its advanced centrifuge cascades and little more than one-third of its existing stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access.
· Using more of its remaining stock of 60 percent enriched uranium in the same three or four cascades and much of its stock of near 20 percent enriched uranium in the vast bulk of its production-scale cascades, Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for an additional four nuclear weapons within the first month of a breakout.
· In the second month, using its further remaining stocks of 20 and 60 percent material and part of its stock of less than 5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU), Iran could produce enough WGU for another two weapons. Using its residual stock of less than 5 percent low-enriched uranium (LEU), Iran could produce enough WGU for an eighth weapon by the end of the third month.
· In summary, Iran could produce enough WGU for five nuclear weapons in one month, seven in two months, and a total of eight in three months.
· Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) was 114.1 kg (Uranium mass, or U mass) or 168.8 kg uranium hexafluoride mass (hex mass) as of May 13. With a monthly average production rate of 9 kg (U mass) per month, Iran could amass enough 60 percent HEU for three nuclear weapons by mid-June.
