Predictive Policing Software Terrible at Predicting Crimes | UFO Research Is Only Harmed by Antigovernment Rhetoric | AI and the Future of Drone Warfare, and more

Last year, the U.S. Department of Defense stood up the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), and it recently started to present data on its website. There’s also support across the aisle in the Senate for an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would create an independent board to declassify government UAP records. And NASA’s UAP Independent Study Team just recommended (PDF) a whole-of-government framework to collect high-quality data on these phenomena.
Many in the American public feel a personal connection to the topic. Recent surveys find that about one-quarter of Americans report having seen some kind of UFO. Research we worked on at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation has found clusters of UFO reports across most U.S. states over the past several decades. These constituencies—and their elected officials—can be expected to have strong feelings about UAP data and what it does or doesn’t show.
But there is also an undercurrent of conspiracy theory and, relatedly, antigovernment sentiment brewing around the issue. If this grows, it could prove toxic to any factual and scientific discussion of UAPs.
If UAP information gets caught up in debates over antigovernment conspiracies, that’ll put the entire area of research—and the movement to make data more transparent—at risk.

NSA Releases Guidance on Acceptance Testing for Supply Chain Risk Management (NSA)  (NSA/CSS)
The National Security Agency (NSA) has released the Cybersecurity Information Sheet (CSI) “Procurement and Acceptance Testing Guide for Servers, Laptops, and Desktop Computers” encouraging U.S. Government departments and agencies operating National Security Systems (NSS) to implement a robust supply chain risk management strategy.
Enterprise computing systems should be procured with a robust set of security capabilities that are tested before acceptance. The CSI details implementation of a supply chain risk mitigation process that utilizes Trusted Platform Modules (TPMs) and Platform Certificates.
A TPM is a small security chip embedded in most enterprise computing systems. The TPM stores keys associated with certificates created by vendors and manufacturers. The keys are then used during acceptance testing to validate the integrity of the computing system.

The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China  (Robert D. Atkinson and Liza Tobin, Lawfare)
The steady stream of U.S. senior officials traveling to Beijing in the past few months has underscored the administration’s quest for a fresh approach to navigating the economic and technological rivalry between the United States and China. As the world closely observes these diplomatic exchanges, a question looms large: Are traditional methods of engagement effective in addressing the growing challenges posed by China’s techno-economic malpractice to U.S. economic interests and those of other democratic market economies?
To prevent a significant erosion of their competitive edge in advanced industries, the United States and its allies must take decisive action on all three fronts—promotion, protection, and pooling. China’s rapid progress and the nature of innovation industries, where gaining competitive advantage can tip the balance decisively, give many advantages to China. But by leveraging their collective market power, America and its allies and partners can chart a path toward preserving and enhancing their positions in these critical sectors.

AI and the Future of Drone Warfare: Risks and Recommendations  (Brianna Rosen, Just Security)
The next phase of drone warfare is here. On Sep. 6, 2023, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks touted the acceleration of the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative – an effort to dramatically scale up the United States’ use of artificial intelligence on the battlefield. She rightfully called it a “game-changing shift” in national security. Under Replicator, the U.S. military aims to field thousands of autonomous weapons systems across multiple domains in the next 18 to 24 months.
Yet Replicator is only the tip of the iceberg. Rapid advances in AI are giving rise to a new generation of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) that can identify, track, and attack targets without human intervention. Drones with autonomous capabilities and AI-enabled munitions are already being used on the battlefield, notably in the Russia-Ukraine War. From “killer algorithms” that select targets based on certain characteristics to autonomous drone swarms, the future of warfare looks increasingly apocalyptic.