Intensifying Pace and Severity of Extreme Events Increases Risks of Compounding Disasters and Demands Rethinking of U.S. Emergency Management

Such circumstances further constrain the ability of residents to recovery fully from disasters, while increasing their sensitivity to the effects of climate change and extreme events. The report finds that as a result, perpetual disaster recovery is an enduring reality for many living in the Gulf region.

The report highlights the importance of the interconnected and interdependent systems critical to societal functioning, and calls attention to the connections and feedback loops that can amplify the negative impacts of disasters. This systems-oriented approach points to the need to bolster key pillars of communities’ ability to respond to extreme events, including public health, mental health, and community-based organizations, risk and emergency communications infrastructure, and access to safe, sanitary, and secure housing. Strategies aimed at strengthening these pillars can increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable and exposed communities so that disaster effects are less likely to compound.

The report finds that the ability to successfully manage disaster risk and plan for future events is constrained by cognitive biases that do not extend beyond what has been experienced or what is perceived to be the benchmark extreme. These biases are reflected in emergency management protocols, land-use planning and plans, zoning regulations, public utility design, and building codes, which are often grounded in historical precedent. Given a changing climate, this backward-looking vantage is unlikely to be representative of future hazard risks.

“The years 2020 and 2021 were devastating for the Gulf Coast region,” said Lauren Alexander Augustine, executive director of the Gulf Research Program, which funded the study. “Our best science tells us that this likely wasn’t a fluke, and we need to draw upon the lessons and experiences of those years to position ourselves to build a strong foundation fitting the new normal of disasters that the 21st century will bring.”

Among the report’s other conclusions:

·  Pervasive mental health impacts of compounding disasters undermine the adaptive capacity of communities to withstand and effectively recover from disruptive events.

·  Health care and public health systems require increased adaptive capacity and staffing to respond to the diverse challenges of compounding disasters.

·  The heavy dependence on community-based organizations for disaster relief and recovery can strain these individuals and groups beyond the point of effectiveness in the face of compounding disasters.

·  Technology, though a powerful tool for delivering services in times of crisis, is not a universal substitute for interpersonal communication and in-person disaster recovery assistance.

·  Stronger mechanisms are essential to translate prior experience into lessons learned and implemented.

·  Revisions to disaster planning, response, and recovery policies and procedures need to directly address and eliminate the uneven access to resources that can exacerbate social and economic inequities in the wake of disasters.