Despite Trump’s Claim, Deportations Likely Wouldn’t Ease Housing Crisis, Most Experts Say
In recent years, he added, members of the millennial generation — not immigrants — have driven the rise in new households, especially during the pandemic.
“It’s important to push back against the argument that housing for one group comes at the cost of another,” Frost said.
‘Voters Have Expressed Support’
More than 22 million people were living in households in 2022 with at least one immigrant who’s not in the United States legally — about 6.3 million households in total, according to Pew Research Center data.
Homes with immigrants living here illegally are just 4.8% of the United States’ 130 million households, according to Pew. In 86% of those households, either the head of the household or their spouse didn’t have legal authorization.
And with a major demographic shift in the coming decade — a large, aging baby boom generation and declining birth rates — the United States will need immigrants or begin to lose population, Frost said.
He pointed to a January demographic outlook report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which notes that “net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.”
Some housing experts say the math Trump describes can work out: Deporting immigrants living here without authorization would open more housing space, which could lower housing costs overall.
“Deporting 2 million individuals would reduce housing demand and relieve supply constraints, because those 2 million individuals are living in homes somewhere,” said Edward Pinto, a senior fellow and co-director of the AEI Housing Center at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.
Pinto acknowledged that immigrants living in the U.S. illegally aren’t the sole driver of the housing crisis, citing the high cost of land and ineffective affordable housing programs as other barriers.
Yet while Trump’s plan for mass deportations has drawn criticism and partisan opinion, Pinto said it is in direct response to American voters’ fears about immigration.
“The voters have expressed support for deportation and repatriation,” said Pinto, who emphasized that Trump has pledged to focus first on deporting people with criminal convictions.
Uncertain Market Effects
If anything, some brokers say, deportations could hurt rental property owners. Any impact would most likely be felt first in among apartments in low-income communities, some brokers told Stateline.
Jeff Lichtenstein, who owns a real estate company in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said the effects would ripple beyond the low-cost rental market, where many immigrants without documentation are tenants. A decline in rental prices in extremely low-income areas could create a domino effect, he said, dragging down prices in higher-priced rental categories and eventually affecting home sales.
“As cheaper rentals become more accessible, individuals who might otherwise save for a down payment on a home could opt to rent instead, slowing housing sales and potentially driving down home values across price points,” Lichtenstein said.
Meanwhile, the nation relies heavily on immigrant labor, including workers who are living in the United States illegally, to build new homes.
According to National Association of Home Builders data from 2022, immigrants account for at least 40% of the construction labor force in California and Texas, and for at least 30% in Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey and New York. Certain occupations are especially reliant on immigrant workers — plasterers, drywall installers and roofers among them.
In disaster-prone areas such as Florida, labor shortages driven by deportations could delay essential repairs and, if property owners can’t get them done, drive up insurance costs after storms, said Renata Castro, an immigration attorney in Coral Springs, Florida.
Those shortages also jack up repair costs, she added, which in turn affects housing prices when property sellers pass along those expenses.
“From roofers to plumbers, the demand for labor is insatiable,” Castro said. “However, Americans refuse to fill these positions — jobs they do not want to do.”
Robbie Sequeira is a staff writer covering housing and social services for Stateline. The article was originally appeared in Stateline.
