DRONESUnmanned Systems Are Not Revolutionary (but Could Be)
Rather than revolutionizing warfare, unmanned systems have emerged as evolutions within the larger information revolution; advancements to be sure, but failing to render conventional militaries obsolete or dramatically reshaping force structures.
High Tech Hype and the Reality of Unmanned Systems
The proliferation of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) supplemented by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) targeting has fueled claims of an emergent military revolution. Supporters claim that UAS and its AI-enabled next-generation counterpart represent a paradigmatic shift away from traditional warfighting, necessitating force restructuring and significant investment in emerging offensive technologies. As states race to achieve “revolutionary” unmanned capabilities, the Department of Defense (DoD) must take a balanced approach to investing in the high-tech arms race while addressing issues of force readiness and conventional warfighting capabilities, especially in preparing for possible denied, degraded, and disrupted space operational environments (D3SOE). A closer examination of contemporary sUAS use, such as in the Russo-Ukraine War, discredits the claim that unmanned technology is revolutionary and should caution the DoD against “AI-hype.”
sUAS have not fundamentally reshaped warfighting, nor impacted strategic outcomes, despite operators increasingly employing sUAS. Rather than revolutionizing warfare, unmanned systems have emerged as evolutions within the larger information revolution; advancements to be sure, but failing to render conventional militaries obsolete or dramatically reshaping force structures.
As such, sUAS and emerging lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) fail to meet the criteria of revolutionary technology for three reasons: (1) they have not impacted strategic outcomes as expected of revolutionary technology, (2) their offensive capabilities are diminishing as novelty wanes and countermeasures advance, and (3) they remain dependent on human oversight for control. However, these technologies could become truly revolutionary if innovators embrace full autonomy and–perhaps dangerously–deregulate restrictions on autonomy.
The Misapplication of “Revolutionary”
Many professionals misapply the term “revolutionary” in contemporary military and academic discourse, perhaps influenced by private interests, the military-industrial complex, and “tech bros” who benefit from over-hyping experimental technology. Unlike novel affordable sUAS, larger models like the RQ-4 Global Hawk and the MQ-9 Reaper have long been employed by the U.S. military and intelligence community. However, since 2010, the number of countries with military UAS has nearly doubled. Interest has grown beyond nation-states to non-state groups (and the concerned populace of New Jersey) alike as affordable, commercially accessible sUAS become easily weaponized tools of warfighting.
