WORLD ROUNDUP – 28 JULY – 2 AUGUST 2025Trump’s Trade War Returns America to the 1930s | Israel’s Strategic Priorities in Post-Assad Syria | Export Controls Aren’t Enough to Beat China’s AI | The Most Successful CIA Operation You’ve Never Heard of, and more

CHINA WATCH

Failure of Taiwanese Recall Elections Leaves Defense Build-up in Gridlock  (Thijs Stegeman, The Strategist)
The failure of Taiwan’s ruling party to unseat opposition members of the legislature in recall elections last weekend may prevent President Lai Ching-te from lifting defense spending.
Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) failed in all 24 recall elections held on the weekend, leaving the Taiwan’s opposition with its blocking majority.
In July the legislature postponed a US$14.2 billion bill intended to strengthen national security and mitigate the economic impacts from US tariffs, raising questions about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense
The recall elections were the culmination of a campaign by the DPP to remove 35 members of the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT). Under Taiwan’s electoral law, a petition by at least 10 percent of voters in a district can trigger a recall election. The DPP needed to unseat at least six KMT legislators to gain a majority. In the event, it unseated none.
Seven more recall elections are scheduled for this month, but the campaign has clearly lost momentum.

Cancelling President Lai’s Transit Is a Mistake That Will Embolden China  (David Sacks, CFR)
According to reports, the Trump administration has cancelled Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te’s planned transit through New York, which he would have made before visiting three of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners in Latin America and the Caribbean. Initial reporting indicates the Trump administration made this decision to remove any potential impediments to a bilateral trade deal and pave the way for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. If true, such a move sends a dangerous signal to China and risks undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.

Tehran’s Wake‑Up Call for Beijing  (Grant Rumley and Craig Singleton, Foreign Policy)
The sudden U.S. attack on Iran could complicate China’s Taiwan calculus.

Export Controls Aren’t Enough to Beat China’s AI  (Robert C. O’Brien, National Interest)
China’s progress in artificial intelligence is not slowing down. America can only win by doing what it does best: innovating.

MIDDLE EAST

Hamas Wants Gaza to Starve  (Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, The Atlantic)
Starvation only helps Hamas end the war in a way that advances its aims.

Could Images of the Famine in Gaza Change Israeli Public Opinion?  (David E. Rosenberg, Foreign Policy)
A newscast showing starving children prompted sympathy—and criticism.